Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Trust Distrust

I have often heard "Vishwaas pe duniya chalti hai.". As I think about it, I come to the conclusion that nothing could be more wrong.

Some game theorists (I don't remember who) did an experiment some time ago. The game involved two players. The first player was given 100 units of money and was supposed to divide the money between the two. The rules dictated that if the second player agreed to the division then the money would be divided between the  players in the manner set by the first player. However if the second player disagreed, none of them would be given any money. So, logically the players should be able to reach an agreement as long as the second player gets something (even if that is the smallest amount, 1 unit) because otherwise his gain would be zero. But what the game theorists found was that most of the time the second player disagreed even when the amount was greater than zero (but less than 50). They concluded that it is not utility (in terms of money) that is significant but envy. Hence, envy makes the world go round.

I learnt another fable in the famous TV series "Game of Thrones". There are three persons in a room. A king, a rich trader, and a valiant powerful soldier. The trader tries to convince the soldier to murder the king and he would make the richer in exchange. The king tries to convince the soldier to kill the trader. It is also plausible that the soldier kills both of them and becomes the king. So where does the power reside? Money, political power, or physical strength. This scenario could easily be modeled in a multi-player game taking into account the distrust factor between the players. Hence, a monarch rules over many powerful nobles taking advantage of  the distrust between them.

In the political scenario today Arvind Kejriwal is able to thrive because of the distrust between the other powerful factions.

Game theory's basic assumption is that the players in a game are not able to communicate i.e. there is distrust between them. And it has proven to be a very powerful tool in modeling real scenarios. So anyone who understands this important factor of social dynamics, has the capability to rule. Hence, the next time an auto-wallah gives you this adage remember this...

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